Navigating Trade Turbulence: Insights from Shipping Data on US-China Dynamics

The trade relationship between China and the United States has long been a pivotal element of global economic dynamics. However, recent trade tensions between China and the US have brought about considerable volatility and uncertainty. Dun & Bradstreet has leveraged our shipping data from recent container trade activities to provide a comprehensive overview and insights into the current trade situation.

The latest changes in tariff policies have significantly impacted the trade dynamics between China and the US. Notably, while the US has paused reciprocal tariffs on other countries, China remains the primary focus of these measures. These tariff hikes have created a challenging environment for businesses on both sides, leading to increased costs and disrupted supply chains.

Impact of Tariff Policies:

Recent Shipping Insights from Dun & Bradstreet indicate a substantial decline in trade activity between the two nations:

US to China Trade:

In Q1 2025, the total TEU (Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit) volume from the US to China was 24% lower than in Q1 2024. This decline reflects the growing uncertainty and increased costs associated with exporting to China amidst rising tariffs.

China to US Trade:

• In March 2025, there was a notable 22% drop in total TEU volume compared to the previous month and a 30% drop compared to the same month in 2024.

• Shipments from China to the US have declined sharply in April 2025, averaging a 37% week-over-week drop so far this month.

• This steep reduction reflects the compounded effect of the heightened tariffs and the increasing costs and complexities for exporters shipping directly to the US market.

Trade Diversion Trends:

Businesses are increasingly looking to diversify their supply chains and export markets to navigate the challenging tariff landscape. The data uncovers a significant trade diversion trend: exports from China to Vietnam surged by 70% year-on-year in Q1 2025, while Vietnam’s exports to the US increased by 18% in the same period. The rise in indirect trade routes, such as through Vietnam, highlights adaptive strategies to maintain trade flows under new realities, though such practices face growing scrutiny from regulators emphasizing stricter origin-compliance standards.

It will be crucial for businesses leaders to stay informed and agile in their strategies to navigate this complex landscape and optimizing supply chains to mitigate risks.

Utilizing comprehensive data from reliable sources like Dun & Bradstreet can provide a competitive edge. D&B Shipping Insights offers nearly universal coverage with in-depth market analysis, benefiting from 57% visibility over market data, covering a stunning $1.425 trillion in maritime trade.

Companies can optimize supply chain performance and validate global trade compliance to better meet Know Your Third Party (KY3P) and Anti-money laundering (AML) requirements.